SUMMER RAINS START IN SOME AREAS

KEY POINTS

• Current situation: calm in all regions
• June: rains started in summer breeding areas
• July–September: above-normal rains likely in summer breeding areas for small-scale breeding
• October: potential locust increase in African Sahel, Yemen, Indo-Pakistan border

The Desert Locust situation continued to remain calm during June.

Only low numbers of solitarious adults persisted in southeast Egypt and near irrigated areas in the Sahara of Algeria. No control operations were required during the month.

Due to a persistent La Niña, seasonal rains commenced earlier than normal as expected in some southern parts of the summer breeding areas in the northern Sahel between Mauritania and western Eritrea. Rains were heavier and widespread in Mauritania. Nevertheless, vegetation remained mostly dry but was starting to become green in parts of central Niger, the interior of Sudan, and eastern Ethiopia.

In response to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, pre-monsoon rains fell in some areas along the Indo-Pakistan border that should cause annual vegetation to become green.

During the forecast period, small-scale breeding will occur in the northern Sahel from Mauritania to western Eritrea and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. This will cause locust numbers to increase slightly but remain well below threatening levels. Limited breeding may also occur in northeast Ethiopia and in the interior of Yemen if rains fell during the forecast period.

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations